Artilium

Thursday, April 01, 2010

The Cloud and the Browser

Developing applications for desktop use is relatively straight forward since a developer needs only develop for Windows in order to access 90% of all computer users.  Alternatively they could produce a web application which runs on a server with the web providing a common interface.  This would give access to almost 100% of all internet connected users.

Applications for mobile are a different matter.  “There’s an app for that!” but most subscribers don’t have a mobile that runs the app!  The majority of apps run on top of the phone OS, some simple ones such as games are written in J2ME but these run in the foreground and the phone cannot do anything else while the app is running.  So even if each app is developed for each smart phone OS (and there are quite a few), the app still only reaches less than half of the potential subscriber base since most people do not have smart phone devices.

So what is the answer? There seem to be two potential solutions that might work:

1. A standardised OS to be adopted by all device manufacturers.
2. A standard UI made available on all devices and apps run in the cloud.

It is clear that solution 1 is highly unlikely to happen and that solution 2 most probably will! The standard UI that will be adopted is the web browser. Although incompatibilities currently exist in this area, these issues are being addressed and HTML 5 with good media support ought to become universally supported on mobile browsers.

PC and mobile applications are probably heading in the same direction towards a client - server or browser - cloud implementation.  In the case of desktop applications, there is a shift towards software as a service (SaaS) with the driver being an alternative revenue model rather than a compatibility issue.  With the mobile the compatibility issue will drive serious developers to develop cloud-based web applications to provide ubiquity across devices.  Will this kill off the phone-based application?  Probably not, but it will change the dynamics of the industry and we may see the more serious applications being cloud-based solutions.

We all know the pain involved in moving our applications and data to a new desktop computer.  When changing mobile in the past it was just a case of copying contacts, but now you will have data, settings and applications – it is getting just as complex as moving to a new PC.  By holding apps and data off of the device enables them to be accessed from any device (browser) and so the pain involved in changing hardware is greatly reduced.  The issues of storing, back-up and virus control can also be addressed via this model, however data ownership, service level agreements and security issues do become concerns.

Today’s youth is growing up in a society where ownership of content is not as important as access to the media on demand.  The same is becoming true of applications which need not be owned, but access to a connected service is desired and control (ownership) of personal data is what is important.  Social networks are a good example of these cloud-based services that are available to both fixed and mobile devices.  Applications, e.g. iPhone apps do not command high prices – they are often free or just a few dollars.  They command little real value and are quickly disposed of. Whereas, connected services that can work on any device have a higher value and so a better commercial model can be developed.

We foresee that cloud or network services are the future since they have the capacity to deliver valuable connected services to mobile.  Mobile-based apps have emerged strongly, but then so did snap-on covers, mobile screensavers and ringtones.  Novelties eventually lose their commercial value – whereas serious connected applications and services will deliver real revenue in the future.  The current phone-based app stores are not the golden goose some seem to believe.  Perhaps the gold is actually hidden in the cloud!